According to @GracyBitget, BTC is cooling off and traders should assess whether the pullback is seasonal or structural (source: @GracyBitget). According to @GracyBitget, spot Bitcoin ETF net flows are approximately -$1.17B in August, highlighting outflows as a key pressure point to monitor (source: @GracyBitget). According to @GracyBitget, on-chain data show investors are selling BTC at a loss, indicating capitulation risk to watch for sentiment shifts (source: @GracyBitget). According to @GracyBitget, BTC’s RSI is at 23.18, an oversold reading that traders are tracking for potential momentum changes (source: @GracyBitget). According to @GracyBitget, a Federal Reserve rate cut and rising global M2 are potential bullish liquidity tailwinds for BTC that traders should factor into risk positioning (source: @GracyBitget).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Federal Reserve is set to cut rates while inflation rebounds, a setup they state the stock market will like, source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Aug 23, 2025. According to The Kobeissi Letter, wage growth is likely to lag inflation and the wealth gap could widen, signaling pressure on real consumer incomes, source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Aug 23, 2025. For traders, looser policy into rising inflation can boost risk assets, and crypto often trades as high beta to equities with documented periods of positive BTC–Nasdaq correlation in 2020–2022, source: Kaiko Research correlation studies 2022–2023 and Coin Metrics State of the Network. Key market checks for positioning include DXY, the US 2-year yield, and real yields, where a softer dollar and lower front-end yields have coincided with stronger BTC and ETH in prior risk-on phases, source: Federal Reserve H.15 data and Kaiko Research.

According to @rovercrc, there is now a 100% chance the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September, and he expects Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins to go parabolic, implying a bullish momentum setup into the next FOMC decision for crypto traders (source: Crypto Rover on X, Aug 14, 2025).

According to @rovercrc, a forthcoming Federal Reserve rate cut could catalyze a parabolic rally in Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins by boosting macro liquidity that historically supports risk assets; Source: @rovercrc on X, Aug 13, 2025. As historical context, after the Federal Reserve cut the policy rate to 0–0.25% on March 15, 2020, BTC rose from roughly $5,000 in March 2020 to about $64,000 by April 2021; Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System press release, Mar 15, 2020; Yahoo Finance BTC-USD historical data. For trading, monitor upcoming FOMC decisions and policy statements published by the Federal Reserve, as these announcements are known market catalysts for crypto volatility aligned with the author’s thesis; Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; @rovercrc on X, Aug 13, 2025.

According to @KobeissiLetter, traders are focused on Fed Chair Powell after a mixed inflation print where headline inflation is described as cold, core inflation as hot, and month-over-month inflation as expected (source: @KobeissiLetter). @KobeissiLetter expects a 25 bps rate cut in September, arguing the Fed can point to a weaker labor market despite hotter inflation (source: @KobeissiLetter). The source frames Powell’s upcoming messaging as the key near-term catalyst to watch for markets (source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to @KobeissiLetter, headline inflation is cold, core inflation is hot, and month-over-month inflation came in as expected based on the latest print. @KobeissiLetter expects a 25 bps Fed rate cut in September, noting the Federal Reserve may point to a weaker labor market despite hotter inflation. @KobeissiLetter also highlights that all eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, signaling event risk around his remarks for rate expectations and market positioning.

According to @rovercrc, a September rate cut is coming and could drive trillions of dollars into Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto, per an X post on August 11, 2025. According to @rovercrc, the post does not include an official Federal Reserve source, so the claim remains unverified by the central bank at the time of posting. According to the Federal Reserve, policy-rate decisions are only confirmed via official FOMC statements and releases on federalreserve.gov, so traders should wait for official communication before sizing positions. According to the Federal Reserve’s explanation of monetary policy transmission, liquidity conditions can shift after rate decisions, so BTC traders can monitor FOMC announcements, US Treasury yield moves, and BTC spot and futures basis for volatility around policy updates.

According to @rovercrc, a Fed rate cut would be a powerful bullish catalyst for Bitcoin. Historically, outcomes have depended on the macro context: after the emergency cuts to 0–0.25% and the restart of asset purchases on March 15, 2020, BTC gained over 100% by August 2020 and more than 400% by year-end 2020, reflecting a liquidity-driven bid for risk assets (source: Federal Reserve FOMC statement 2020-03-15; BTC-USD daily prices from Yahoo Finance). In contrast, during the 2019 mid-cycle cuts on July 31, September 18, and October 30, BTC fell roughly 30% from July 31 to December 31, 2019 before its longer-term uptrend resumed, underscoring that not every cut triggers an immediate rally (sources: Federal Reserve FOMC statements 2019-07-31, 2019-09-18, 2019-10-30; Yahoo Finance BTC-USD historical data). Macro transmission matters for crypto beta: BTC’s rolling correlation has been negative versus the U.S. Dollar Index and positive versus the Nasdaq 100 through much of 2022–2023, implying a weaker USD and easier financial conditions tend to support BTC, while risk-off in equities can weigh on it even during easing cycles (source: Kaiko research, 2023; ICE U.S. Dollar Index overview). For positioning around an eventual cut, traders commonly monitor Fed cut odds via CME FedWatch, the DXY trend, and U.S. real yields as proxied by 10-year TIPS yields to gauge liquidity and risk appetite shifts that spill over to BTC (sources: CME Group FedWatch Tool; ICE U.S. Dollar Index; Federal Reserve Economic Data for Treasury real yields).

According to @StockMKTNewz, Goldman Sachs has stated that it expects Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the US Fed to implement three consecutive 0.25% interest rate cuts at the remaining FOMC meetings in 2025, specifically on September 17th (cutting rates to 4%-4.25%), October 29th (to 3.75%-4%), and December 10th (to 3.50%-3.75%). These anticipated rate reductions are likely to increase liquidity and could drive increased capital inflows into risk assets, including major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Traders should monitor these dates closely, as rate changes historically lead to higher volatility and trading volumes in both the crypto and equity markets, presenting potential short-term trading opportunities. Source: @StockMKTNewz

According to @rovercrc, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to make a decision on interest rate cuts soon, a development widely viewed as bullish for Bitcoin (BTC). Lower interest rates typically increase risk appetite and drive capital into alternative assets like cryptocurrencies. Traders should monitor upcoming FED statements closely, as a confirmed rate cut could catalyze significant upward momentum for BTC prices, according to @rovercrc.

According to @StockMKTNewz, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen below 98, marking its worst performance since 1991 and creating a potentially bullish long-term environment for risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC). This weakness is driven by factors including U.S. inflation coming in below estimates at 2.4% and a 99.8% market-priced probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, as per the CME FedWatch Tool. However, despite the favorable macro backdrop, short-term technical analysis for Bitcoin is bearish. Analyst Omkar Godbole points to the 14-day stochastic indicator, which suggests an imminent downturn from overbought levels. This technical signal indicates that BTC could revisit sub-$100,000 prices in the short term. A decisive move above its current consolidation pattern would be required to invalidate the bearish outlook and target a rally toward $140,000.

According to @StockMKTNewz, Bitcoin's (BTC) trading outlook presents mixed signals. The bullish case is supported by the U.S. dollar index (DXY) falling to its lowest level since February 2022 and AI-related stock Nvidia (NVDA) hitting a record high, with the 90-day correlation between NVDA and BTC at a strong 0.80. Additional tailwinds include recession indicators such as a steepening yield curve and traders pricing in Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, BTC recently pulled back to around $106,175, with the dip attributed to weakness in tech stocks spilling over into crypto markets. Uncertainty persists as Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintains a "patient" stance on rate cuts, contrasting with other officials pushing for a July cut. Major altcoins including Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and Avalanche (AVAX) also experienced significant declines.

According to @rovercrc, multiple factors are creating a bullish outlook for Bitcoin (BTC). A Coinbase Research report points to a constructive crypto market in the second half of 2025, fueled by stronger U.S. economic growth projections, as indicated by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker, and significant regulatory progress, such as the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act. The report also notes that while corporate adoption is increasing demand, it introduces risks if firms fund crypto purchases with convertible debt. Separately, Matt Mena of 21Shares suggests that recent softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data could be a major bullish catalyst, putting a Bitcoin price of $200,000 by the end of this year "firmly in play." Mena argues that cooling inflation increases the likelihood of Federal Reserve policy easing, which could accelerate institutional investment and ETF inflows, reinforcing Bitcoin's role in global portfolios.

According to @rovercrc, Bitcoin (BTC) traders are closely monitoring key macroeconomic events this week after the cryptocurrency slumped below $106,000. The main event is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress, where his stance on interest rates will be scrutinized. Dovish signals could boost risk assets like BTC, especially as some market participants, like Chris Weston of Pepperstone, note that a September rate cut is already priced into the U.S. swaps market. However, analysts at ING remain cautious, forecasting only one rate cut this year, potentially in December. Another critical event is the release of the Core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, with consensus expecting a benign 0.1% monthly increase, which could support the case for rate cuts. The market is also on edge due to the approaching July 9 tariff deadline and geopolitical tensions involving Iran, which contributed to a selloff that saw altcoins like Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP drop by 5-7%.

According to @rovercrc, analysis from Matt Mena of 21Shares indicates that softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data could be a major bullish catalyst for Bitcoin (BTC). Mena suggests that if BTC breaks out of the $105K-$110K range with conviction, it could move sharply to $120K, potentially reaching a $138.5K target by the end of summer, as cited in the report. With continued momentum, a Bitcoin price of $200K by the end of the year is now considered 'firmly in play', according to Mena. This optimistic outlook is supported by cooling inflation strengthening the case for Federal Reserve policy easing. Mena also noted that other bullish catalysts include sovereign and institutional adoption and impending stablecoin regulation, which could accelerate ETF inflows and reinforce Bitcoin's role in global portfolios.

According to @StockMKTNewz, Bitcoin's (BTC) bullish case is strengthening as several key traditional market indicators align in its favor. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022, a development that Bitwise's Head of Research, Andre Dragosch, called "very bullish" for global money supply and Bitcoin. Further supporting a risk-on sentiment, Nvidia (NVDA) shares hit a record high, maintaining a strong 90-day correlation of 0.80 with BTC. Meanwhile, macroeconomic signals like a steepening yield curve, which wealth advisor Kurt S. Altrichter notes has historically preceded recessions, and a drop in consumer confidence reported by the Conference Board, are fueling expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. CME's FedWatch tool indicates traders are now pricing in a potential July cut. In a separate analysis, JPMorgan raised its price targets for bitcoin miners including CleanSpark (CLSK), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and MARA Holdings (MARA), citing a 24% increase in its spot bitcoin price assumption and improving industry economics.

According to @rovercrc, a softer-than-expected U.S. inflation report is acting as a major bullish catalyst for Bitcoin (BTC), with some analysts now forecasting a potential price of $200,000 by year-end. Matt Mena, a research strategist at 21Shares, stated that if BTC decisively breaks the $105K-$110K range, it could rapidly move towards $120K and hit a year-end target of $138.5K by the end of summer. Mena believes the favorable inflation data now puts a $200K BTC price 'firmly in play' for 2024. The cooling inflation has led traders to price in about two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, which is typically positive for risk assets like Bitcoin. Further bullish momentum is attributed to sovereign and institutional adoption, alongside impending stablecoin regulation. Meanwhile, Vetle Lunde of K33 research anticipates a volatile July due to U.S. policies, but notes that contained crypto-leverage reduces the risk of a major market deleveraging. At the time of the analysis, BTC was trading around $108,381.

According to @rovercrc, Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching $108,000, driven by a confluence of bullish macroeconomic signals and strengthening technicals. Key drivers include rising expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, as hinted by Jerome Powell, and a weakening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which Bitwise's Andre Dragosch called "very bullish" for Bitcoin. The crypto market is also benefiting from a strong correlation with tech stocks, as AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) hit a record high, showing a 0.80 90-day correlation with BTC. FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich noted that BTC reclaiming its 50-day moving average signals potential for further acceleration. Meanwhile, retail and institutional demand is growing; eToro data shows 58% of U.S. retail investors are increasing crypto exposure, and LVRG Research's Nick Ruck confirms institutional purchases are picking up. Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA) are also showing gains, poised to follow Bitcoin's lead.

According to @KookCapitalLLC, a softer-than-expected U.S. inflation report has significantly improved the outlook for Bitcoin (BTC), with one analyst suggesting a price of $200,000 by year-end is now a distinct possibility. Matt Mena, a crypto research strategist at 21Shares, stated that the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data may act as a major bullish catalyst. Mena projects that if BTC decisively breaks out of the $105,000-$110,000 range, it could quickly move to $120,000 and potentially reach a $138,500 target by the end of the summer. The favorable CPI print, which showed a 0.1% increase against a forecasted 0.2%, has led traders to price in approximately two 25-basis-point Fed rate cuts this year. This macroeconomic tailwind, combined with increasing institutional adoption and impending stablecoin regulation, could accelerate ETF inflows, according to Mena. Following the news, Bitcoin surpassed $110,000 after U.S. spot ETFs recorded over $407.78 million in inflows. The rally extended to the broader market, with memecoins BONK and FARTCOIN surging over 20%, indicating heightened investor risk appetite. However, Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, cautioned that while BTC may test its historical high of around $112,000, the upcoming U.S. employment report could pose a significant challenge.

According to @MI_Algos, Bitcoin's (BTC) bullish case is gaining momentum as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to its lowest level since February 2022, a development described as 'very bullish' for global money supply and bitcoin by Bitwise's Andre Dragosch. Further support comes from the strong positive correlation between BTC and Nvidia (NVDA), with the 90-day correlation coefficient at 0.80 as NVDA shares hit a new record high. Traditional market indicators also point to favorable conditions for risk assets; wealth advisor Kurt S. Altrichter noted that the bond market's steepening yield curve is a classic recession signal that has historically preceded bull runs. Additionally, traders are increasingly pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut for July, with interest rate swaps showing around four basis points of easing, according to Bloomberg. Institutional adoption is also accelerating, with the Federal Housing Finance Agency ordering Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to prepare to count cryptocurrency as a valid asset for mortgages.